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<\/p>\nThe US has threatened to impose high tariffs on imports from China on October 10 (Friday). This move will cause changes in trade flow of China’s PP exports, and the indirect impacts on China’s PP imports cannot be ignored.<\/p>\n
The United States suddenly announced on social media platforms on October 10 (Friday) local time that it would impose a 100% import tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1, 2025 or earlier. This will be an additional levy on top of the existing tariffs, gradually escalating the trade threat to China. At the same time, it was also stated that the United States would impose export controls on “all key software” starting from the same day and might expand the control measures to areas such as aircraft and accessories.<\/p>\n
The United States is an important export market for China’s plastic products. In August 2025, China’s export to the United States reached $ 31.60 billion, a significant year-on-year decrease of 33%, and the export proportion may be less than 10% in the year. In January-August, China’s export to the world reached Yuan 17.61 trillion, an increase of 6.9%. The continuous imposition of high tariffs on China’s plastic products and other terminal products by the United States will force Chinese downstream enterprises to adjust their production layout and supply chain strategies, and shift some production to Southeast Asian countries and other regions in order to seek a rapid replacement in the US demand market.<\/p>\n
In recent years, with the continuous expansion of China’s capacity and the escalating trade frictions, the global supply flow of PP has gradually changed. China has transitioned from a net importer to a net exporter. The resources flowing from China to North America decreased, and instead, they increased to Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa. These regions may become the main export directions for China’s PP in the future.<\/p>\n
The direct impact on China’s PP imports will be negligible. According to customs data and industry reports, the volume of PP imported from the United States by China accounts for a very small proportion of China’s total imports, usually less than 1%. China mainly imported PE from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan of China and other Asian regions. These regions are more in line with the Chinese market in terms of geographical location, supply chain efficiency and product structure.<\/p>\n
However, indirect impacts cannot be ignored. The global supply and prices of PP upstream raw materials such as propane (PDH process) or naphtha (cracking process) may still be affected by trade relations. If the United States imposes additional tariffs on other chemical or energy products, it may lead to an increase in global supply chain costs, which will be indirectly passed on to the production costs of PP in China. In addition, production links that partially rely on the United States technology or key equipment may also face risks, forcing enterprises to seek alternative solutions and increasing the cost of transformation.<\/p>\n
Global PP Capacity in 2021-2025 (Unit: mln t\/y)<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Ngu\u1ed3n: OilChem<\/p>\n
The global PP capacity is anticipated to reach around 123.94 million tonne\/year by the end of the year, a rise of 22.56 million t\/y against that in 2021, with the compound annual growth rate at 5.15%. The main driver of global PP capacity growth is China. China’s share of global capacity is expected to rise to 44% by 2025, an increase of 7% compared to 2021.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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